Posted on: October 21, 2022, 01:13h.
Last updated on: October 21, 2022, 07:02h.
Among the millions upon millions of things that do not make sense in New York, a list that begins (but certainly does not end) with a tolerance for allowing crazy people to roam the streets, we enter this weekend with the Giants and Jets bringing astonishment every Sunday.
And then we have Mondays, when we see the gambling lines that the oddsmakers have set for the upcoming NFL week. Invariably, the line gives little resemblance of respect to what New Yorkers and the rest of the world have seen from Gang Green and Big Blue this season.
Take this week, for instance.
The Giants are coming off another come-from-behind, “what the heck just happened?” finish, a 24-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in which the game changed with one mishandled snap.
This was a really costly decision by Lamar Jackson. A bad snap followed by heavy pressure and a forced throw off his back foot. Giants set up now pic.twitter.com/ejfBqtJqTM
— Dylan Backer (@DylanBacker_) October 16, 2022
That led to Saquon Barkley’s go-ahead TD plunge that improved the Giants’ record to 5-1, and yet they were installed as 3-point underdogs for this Sunday’s game against the 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars, a line that has since dipped to 2 1/2 at BetMGM while staying 3 at FanDuel, DraftKings and the other six licensed New York sportsbooks.
And then we have the 4-2 Jets, who are trying to shake off wide receiver Elijah Moore’s trade request as they prepare to face the 2-4 Broncos in Denver and perhaps get some revenge for a 26-0 defeat in Week 3 last season that kept them winless and their fans hopeless.
What’s Up With Different Lines at Different Sportsbooks?
The Jets are favored by 1 point at BetMGM, and are 1-point underdogs at FanDuel and Draft Kings after the line opened at Jets +3.
“The success of the New York teams has bettors riding high, as the Giants and Jets are big liabilities this week,” said Seamus Magee, Sports Trader at BetMGM, which has taken 71% of handle on the Jets against the Broncos and 67% of handle (and 76% of tickets) on the Giants against the Jaguars.
The other six legal sportsbooks in New York have the lines as follows:
Caesars: Giants +3; Jets -1.
PointsBet: Giants +3; Jets +1.
BetRivers: Giants +3, Jets +0.5.
WynnBet: Giants +3, Jets: Pick ’em.
Resorts World: +3, Jets +1.
BallyBetGiants +3, Jets +1.
Not exactly all over the board, but most definitely not the same everywhere. And the odds are different across the Hudson River in New Jersey, where you can shop two dozen different sportsbooks if that is how you choose to spend your time and your gasoline money between now and Sunday afternoon. Be sure to gaze out the windows of your vehicle if that is your choice, because fall foliage looks like this:
Beautiful gold & red fall colors emerging today in #NYC (pics: Chrysler Bldg, Empire State Bldg & Midtown skyline, 59th Street Bridge). #NewYork #autumn #foliage pic.twitter.com/hxoZlDG123
— Inga Sarda-Sorensen (@isardasorensen) October 19, 2022
One of the nice remaining things about New York is that we get three months of each season, and autumn offers us an opportunity to get our heads our of our phones and our bodies off the sofa as we prepare for an epic weekend of sports. That not only includes two Sunday football games, but also the Knicks home opener Friday night, the Yankees putting ace Gerrit Cole on the mound on what is forecast to be a warm and sunny Saturday afternoon, and the New York City FC soccer team traveling to Canada for a Sunday afternoon playoff matchup with CF Montreal across our northern border in Quebec, a trip currently pricing at $70 one way via Amtrak.
What Should We Expect from Giants-Jaguars?
The only thing predictable about what will happen to the squad led by leading Coach of the Year candidate Brian Daboll (down to +350, second behind Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni at +125) in the third and fourth quarters. They will make whatever in-game adjustments need to be made, and they will be better than they were in the first half. They are consistent that way. Not only did the Giants outscore the Ravens 17-10 in the second half last week, they outscored Green Bay 17-2 in the second half two weeks ago in London, the Bears 6-3 in Week 4, and the Titans 21-7 in the second half in Week 1.
They have used QB Daniel Jones as a wideout while having Barkley take the snap from center. They have had Jones run for timely first downs on a gimpy ankle. They used their one and only interception of the season (along with the accompanying 27-yard return by Julian Love) to completely reverse their fortunes at home last week against Baltimore. And basically have done everything possible in the positives column — with the exception of throwing an interception with 1:45 remaining in the Week 3 version of Monday Night Football against Dallas to lose 23-16 to the Cowboys. It is their lone blemish.
“That stadium has been rocking, and we’ve had such great support and it carries over to how we feel, how we play,” Love said. “Several people, like Jessie Armstead, longtime Giants guys, said they haven’t heard that place that loud in a long time.”
But this week’s game is in Northern Florida, home to many transplanted New Yorkers. But also home to a team that has lost three straight to the Eagles, Texans, and Colts to drop to third place in the AFC South. They are ranked 11th defensively in terms of yards allowed, and they are 11th offensively in yards per game.
Travis Etienne, a 2021 first-round pick out of Clemson, got a surprise start last week and has accumulated 222 yards (157 rushing) on 25 touches in the Jaguars’ losses to the Texans and Colts, which works out to 8.9 yards per touch. QB Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 1,397 yards, which is 378 more than Jones has thrown for, and the Jaguars even have a punter in Logan Cooke who is averaging 50.2 yards per kick, the same as the Giants’ Jamie Gillian.
This was an unbelievable punt by Jamie Gillian…
Bounced straight up in the air at the 1-yard line.
Finally, we have ourselves a good punter 🔥 pic.twitter.com/RaNm6Dgg6k
— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) August 28, 2022
What this all adds up to is that statistically, the Jaguars are equal or better than the Giants in many categories. But when it comes to getting things turned around in the second half, nobody can quite compete with Daboll at this point of the season.
The Giants have gone under in four of six games, and the Jaguars have gone waaaaay under (by 19 1/2 and 24 1/2) in both of their home games. The over/under for this 1 p.m. EDT start is 43, and more-than two-thirds of the handle at BetMGM has been on the under.
Barkley leads the NFL in total combined yards from rushing and receiving, and his receiving yardage over/under line is 29 1/2 yards, a total he has surpassed in half of his games. He had only 12 receiving yards last week, furthering a pattern in which he goes for 30 or more receiving yards every other game. So he is due for an over.
Jones has thrown 27 passes each of the last two weeks, totaling 173 yards against Baltimore and 217 against Green Bay. His passing yardage over/under 196 1/2, which is 24 yards lower than Lawrence’s.
The thought here is that this one is played quickly and is low-scoring through three quarters. In the fourth, the Giants trend toward the unexpected, so do with that info what you choose. But parlaying a bunch of player props is guaranteed to be the most fun, because you can string seven or eight expectations together and try to hit a grand slam rather than a home run.
*Saquon Barkley is the NFL’s only player with 85+ scrimmage yards in every game
*Dexter Lawrence matched his career-high with 4th sack last week
*Jihad Ward already has a career-best 6 tackles for loss
Giants-Jaguars Week 7 Preview 📰: https://t.co/n04q7XItre pic.twitter.com/bl5KXCu7BT
— Matt Citak (@MattCitak) October 20, 2022
What Should We Expect From Broncos-Jets?
They dealt with the Elijah Moore situation Friday by announcing that the second-year wide receiver would be inactive. Moore requested a trade Thursday after being sent home following a blow-up with a coach. He has been actively posting and deleting tweets on social media pertaining to his low usage rate, and this is a distraction from a 22-year old that the Jets do not need.
“To ask him to play a football game with where he is from a mental standpoint wouldn’t be fair to him, in my opinion,” coach Robert Saleh told reporters. “But that’s strictly my decision.”
He will remain in New Jersey, working out with the conditioning staff as if he were injured.
“It’s part of what we deal with every day,” Saleh said. “We’ve had our discussions with Elijah. Trading him is not an option.
Gang Green is off to its best start since 2015, and building momentum against a strong Broncos defense will be the primary challenge. Denver is ranked third behind San Francisco and Buffalo for fewest yards allowed per game, while their offense is ranked in the bottom third of the league. The Jets are ranked 10th in points per game and 17th in yards per game. Their defense allows 313.2 yards per game, ninth-best in the NFL.
More telling: The Broncos are allowing 16,5 points per game, the fourth-lowest in the league, and are scoring just 15.2 points per game, last in the NFL. They are expected to try to make Zach Wilson throw the ball rather than hand it off to rookie running back sensation Breece Hall (the favorite at +250 for Offensive Rookie of the Year), especially after Wilson attempted only 18 passes against the Packers, completing 10.
Breece Hall to the HOUSE 👀 (via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/iekjf4iyA3
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) October 16, 2022
Gang Green pressured Aaron Rodgers repeatedly last week, and their defense has been dominant in leading then to wins by 23 points against Miami and 17 against Pittsburgh. New York has gone under in half of their 10 road games since last season, and this week’s over/under of 38 has been lowed by 4 1/2 points by BetMGM over the course of the week. That’s because a whopping 94% of bets and 81% of handle has been on the under.
Enjoy the foliage and the football, folks, and wager wisely.